Top Things to Know: Forecasting the Burden of Cardiovascular Disease and Stroke in the United States Through 2050: Prevalence of Risk Factors and Disease
Published: June 04, 2024
Prepared by Sally S. Wong, PhD, RD, CDN, FAHA, National Senior Director, Science and Medicine; Bernadette Okwu-Gage, PhD, MPH, MBBS. Associate Science and Medicine Advisor
- Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death in the US, and it is associated with significant morbidity, reduced quality of life, and increased health care costs. Forecasts about the prevalence of risk factors and clinical events are crucial.
- This statement forecasts the prevalence for cardiovascular risk factors, based on Life’s Essential 8TM, and overall clinical CVD and stroke (CVDS) through 2050. The statement also presents analyses by age, race and ethnicity, accounting for changes in disease prevalence by demographics.
- The forecast shows that the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors such as hypertension, diabetes and obesity will increase dramatically, while that of hypercholesterolemia will decline by 2050.
- Projections show that the prevalences of risk factors such as poor diet, physical inactivity, and current smoking will decrease, while inadequate sleep will worsen by 2050.
- The projected prevalences of coronary disease, heart failure, stroke, atrial fibrillation, and total CVD will increase by 2050. Stroke will grow the fastest.
- Findings from the forecasting analyses when disaggregated by age show that hypertension, diabetes, and hypercholesterolemia will be most prevalent among older adults. Both hypertension and obesity are on the rise among younger and middle-aged adults.
- Based on the predictions, older adults had the highest prevalence of poor sleep and inadequate physical activity, which may be linked with physiologic effects of aging, while younger age groups had higher rates of smoking and poor diet.
- Similar trends are projected in children as the prevalences of obesity, inadequate physical activity, and poor diet are expected to rise while tobacco use rates will decline.
- Racial disparities exist in the projected prevalences of CVD risk factors, as Black adults were found to have the highest prevalences of hypertension, diabetes, and obesity, but the lowest prevalence of hypercholesterolemia. Absolute increases in prevalence were generally greatest in the Hispanic population, while relative growth was also high in the Asian population.
- Finally, the predicted trends in CVD and cardiovascular risk factors for 2050 along with shifts in population demographics and aging suggest a marked growth in the overall burden of CVDS in the US and this will substantially impact the health and economic well-being of the nation.
Citation
Joynt Maddox KE, Elkind MSV, Aparicio HJ, Commodore-Mensah Y, de Ferranti SD, Dowd WN, Hernandez AF, Khavjou O, Michos ED, Palaniappan L, Penko J, Poudel R, Roger VL, Kazi DS; on behalf of the American Heart Association. Forecasting the burden of cardiovascular disease and stroke in the United States through 2050: prevalence of riskfactors and disease: a presidential advisory from the American Heart Association. Circulation. Published online June 4, 2024. doi: 10.1161/CIR.0000000000001256